WPC Met Watch


WPC Met Watch

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0235 (Issued at 1135 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024
) MPD Selection

 


Graphic for MPD #0235


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western/central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070334Z - 070934Z

Summary...An elongated MCS was developing north-northeastward from
robust convection in northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas toward
the Kansas City metro area.  A few areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates
are expected, which could cause a few issues with flash flooding
through 09Z.

Discussion...An elongated MCS was developing north-northeastward
from southeastern Kansas toward the Kansas City metro area over
the past hour or so.  The MCS was developing in tandem with strong
south-southwesterly mean flow, with only modest eastward component
of motion promoting heavy rainfall and training of cells.  The
training and local cell mergers were promoting areas of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates generally along an axis from near
Fredonia/Chanute to near Lawrence.  These rates were approaching
FFG thresholds in the 1.5 inch/hr range (locally lower),
suggestive of an evolving flash flood threat across the discussion
area.

The storms are in a very unstable (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
moist environment (1.3-1.5 inch PW) with strong shear (300+ m2/s2
0-3km SRH).  As storms mature, a series of LEWPs/bow echoes will
allow for a gradual increase of eastward translation of cells.
Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are likely within the MCS with the
expected evolution on at least an isolated to scattered basis. 
This will result in a few areas of excessive runoff and flash
flood impacts.  More pronounced cell merging was occurring across
southeastern Kansas where instability and moisture was slightly
higher.  Perhaps the greatest flash flood threat across the
discussion area will exist from Parsons east-northeastward to near
El Dorado Springs over the next 2-4 hours.  Flash flooding is
possible in this regime.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40399432 40369297 38989215 37279183 36559253
            36459404 37009533 37859584 38719592 39729533
           

Download in GIS format:    Shapefile
 | KML


Last Updated: 1135 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024



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