WPC Met Watch

WPC Met Watch


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0233 (Issued at 738 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024
) MPD Selection


Graphic for MPD #0233

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...much of central/northern OK into far southern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062337Z - 070510Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will increase across much of
central to northern OK into far southern KS over the next few
hours. Training of storms from W to E or WSW to ENE is expected
along with peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 2315Z over western OK showed three
supercells to the north of I-40, located east of a dryline/cold
front intersection point in the Roger Mills/Beckham County
vicinity. The three cells were aligned from SW to NE, moving
toward the ENE at 30-35 kt within a very unstable environment with
MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis data. Additional cells
were forming along the southern flank of the ongoing storms. This
region of the Plains was located just ahead of the southern end of
a powerful closed mid-level low/trough centered over the High
Plains, moving eastward. In addition, OK was positioned within the
left exit region of a 110-120 kt upper level jet streak (speeds
per RAP analysis) observed on water vapor imagery crossing from NM
into the TX Panhandle. Flow aloft was also very diffluent, with
the area of forcing expected to translate eastward through 06Z as
the upper trough and jet max edge eastward through 06Z.

S to SSW VAD winds at 850 mb over western OK were 30-40 kt at 23Z,
but are expected to increase into the 50-60 kt range by ~03Z. Mean
steering flow within the 850-300 mb layer is roughly SW to NE, but
with supercell motions oriented to the right of the deeper layer
mean wind. Developing cumulus in visible imagery at 2315Z appears
to be showing the potential more development just south of the
cold front/dryline intersection, and with the cells in
northwestern to north-central OK expected to advance to the east
more quickly than those to the south, alignment of cells with the
mean steering flow is expected to support training. Where training
occurs, given sufficient moisture/instability in place and the
strong forcing for ascent, rainfall rates should easily get into
the 2-3 in/hr range. The setup does not appear favorable for
prolonged training, unless a boundary is able to materialize and
stall for long enough allowing for hours of training cells (which
doesn't appear likely). However, the potential for 1-2 hours of
training appears greater which has the potential to allow for 3-5
inches of rain, which may be localized, but enough to cause flash
flooding. Similar training/repeating potential will also exist
farther north into portions of northern OK and far southern KS.




LAT...LON   37359649 37229500 36399471 35419526 34949638
            34859861 34979967 35629977 36179888 36989793

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Last Updated: 738 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

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