WPC Met Watch


WPC Met Watch

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0188 (Issued at 1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
) MPD Selection

 


Graphic for MPD #0188


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Kansas, far northeastern Oklahoma,
western and central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280212Z - 280812Z

Summary...An elongated MCS continued to produce areas of 2-3
inch/hr rainfall rates across southeastern Kansas currently. These
rates will gradually spread into western and central Missouri
while continuing across Kansas potentially 3-6 more hours.  Flash
flooding remains likely for at least another 3-6 hours, and
significant impacts are possible.

Discussion...A persistent, intense MCS continues to extend along a
line from near Clinton, MO west-southwestward to near Ponca City,
Oklahoma.  This MCS continues to remain oriented favorably for
training and very heavy rain rates (exeeding 2 inches/hr at times,
and a broad swath of 3-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
and estimated per MRMS.  Along and southeast of the MCS, strong
southerly flow at 850mb (40+ knots) was helping to maintain moist
and strongly unstable air parcels (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch
PW values) into the MCS, promoting strong and efficient updrafts
while maintaining the MCS on its trek into western Missouri.

Of particular concern is the fact that additional convection
continues to develop on the southwestern flank of the MCS across
far northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas.  Another linger
segment was located near Alva, OK that should reach areas that
have experienced heavy rainfall today.  As long as backbuilding
continues, areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates should continue with
this MCS, potentially producing another 2-5 inches of rain through
08Z tonight.  FFGs range from the 1-2 inch range across far
southeastern Kansas/western Missouri to the 0.25 inch/hr range
from Kay County, OK to Elk County, KS.  These values will be
easily exceeded beneath training convection.  Flash flooding
remains likely, and significant impacts are possible.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39469290 39419212 38779115 38089128 37449250
            36869492 36549722 36409853 36989870 37599789
            37929735 38649625 39299438

Download in GIS format:    Shapefile
 | KML


Last Updated: 1012 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024



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