WPC Met Watch

WPC Met Watch


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0186 (Issued at 650 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
) MPD Selection


Graphic for MPD #0186

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin, central/eastern Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272249Z - 280249Z

Summary...Areas of isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
training, resulting in spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times.  A
few spots of excessive runoff are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage an intensity
along a nearly stationary synoptic boundary extending from north
of Milwaukee west-southwestward to near Cedar Rapids. 
Heating/warm advection along and south of this boundary has
enabled 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to develop near the storms,
supporting robust updrafts.  Additionally, the front and storms
were oriented perpendicular to west-southwesterly flow aloft,
allowing for a narrow axis of convective training immediately
along the front.  Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates have been
estimated by MRMS recently, which was threatening FFG thresholds
of 1.5 inch/hr in vicinity of the convection.

The evolution of the flash flood risk in this region is in
question, however.  A mature MCS continues across north-central
Missouri that should spread from west-southwest to east-northeast
across the region later this evening.  Additionally, modest
geopotential height rises and shortwave ridging aloft were noted
via objective analyses which could suppress convective coverage -
especially after sunset when gradual, nocturnal stabilization
takes hold.  The overall scenario suggests that isolated flash
flood potential should exist for at least a few hours through the
early evening.




LAT...LON   43788788 42748774 42059058 40889259 41729315
            42819249 43649027

Download in GIS format:    Shapefile
 | KML

Last Updated: 650 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

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