WPC Met Watch

WPC Met Watch


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0279 (Issued at 909 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
) MPD Selection


Graphic for MPD #0279

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...far southeast Texas, central/southern Louisiana,
southern/coastal Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170108Z - 170708Z

Summary...An expansive convective complex continues to spread
east-southeastward across far southeast Texas and portions of
Louisiana.  This complex has a history of flash flood impacts
across central and southeast Texas.  Flash flooding remains likely
downstream of this complex into southeastern Louisiana and perhaps
southern/coastal Mississippi through 07Z.

Discussion...An expansive convective complex has evolved into a
series of forward propagating linear segments along an axis
extending from north of Lafayette, LA to near Galveston, TX.  The
complex has picked up forward speed over the past hour or so, but
has still produced 2-3 inch/hr rates across portions of southeast
Texas where convection was less progressive and had more of an
opportunity for training/repeating.  The airmass south of this
complex was still abundantly moist and unstable (2+ inch PW values
and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE), and southerly 850mb flow of around
20-30 knots was continuing to maintain that moist/unstable airmass
into the complex while also allowing for modest
recovery/destabilization to occur downstream across southern
Louisiana.  The moisture/instability was also contributing to
efficient rainfall within the MCS along with several areas of 2+
inch/hr rates at times.

The greatest forecast challenge with the ongoing MCS revolves
around the degree of training/persistence and potential for
heavier rain rates for any length of time.  In the short term,
that potential has become focused into areas along the MCS from
Jefferson County into Calcasieu Parish where near 3 inch/hr rates
were noted.  The orientation of the MCS (along with
moisture/instability feeding it) will continue to support these
rates at times as the overall complex translates eastward across
the I-10 corridor of southern Louisiana.  On its current trek, the
leading edge of the MCS should reach the Baton Rouge area between
0130-0200Z and the Pearl River (along the MS/LA border area)
through 03-04Z.  Again, trailing precipitation on the
west-southwestern flank of the lead MCS is likely to pose a flash
flood risk - especially in low-lying and/or urban areas and where
training can boost rain rates locally.




LAT...LON   31439019 31318873 30508842 29228888 28819026
            29079492 29779528 30279450 30759372 31109257

Download in GIS format:    Shapefile
 | KML

Last Updated: 909 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

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