WPC Met Watch


WPC Met Watch

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0265 (Issued at 1132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
) MPD Selection

 


Graphic for MPD #0265


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Areas affected...southwest/central/southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131530Z - 132130Z

Summary...Robust convective development was moving slowly
northeastward toward the San Antonio area.  Urban/low-lying areas
could experience flash flooding as these storms move through the
discussion area.

Discussion...Strong instability and weak low-level confluence has
resulted in robust convective development generally between Eagle
Pass and western suburbs of San Antonio.  The storms are loosely
organized as a cluster of cells currently, but are in an
environment characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, ~8C/km mid-level
lapse rates, and 50-60 knots of deep shear favoring organization.
The weak low-level shear should allow for upscale growth into one
or two linear segments, with slow propagation and local cell
mergers potentially fostering spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates. 
These rain rates were below FFG thresholds (in the 3-3.5 inch/hr
range), but some concern exists that these cells (and heavier rain
rates) could migrate into the San Antonio Metropolitan area over
the next 1-3 hours.  This could result in a brief/localized flash
flood risk in the near term - especially in sensitive/low-lying
areas.

Over time, upscale growth and east-northeastward propagation of an
eventual MCS is expected.  As this occurs, cells may pick up
forward speed, but cell mergers and localized backbuilding may
still result in spots of 2 inch/hr rain rates that could result in
localized impacts.  Additional slow-moving cells are expected to
develop south and east of the complex near a stationary surface
boundary from just south of San Antonio to west of Houston. The
current convective complex should reach San Antonio Metro soon
(through 1600Z) and continue to develop/spread eastward.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30799631 30369522 29739519 28909632 28049906
            28330013 29620055 30160008 30779855

Download in GIS format:    Shapefile
 | KML


Last Updated: 1132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024



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